?Iranian Nuclear Issue: Why Iran avoids any agreement

?Iranian Nuclear Issue: Why Iran avoids any agreement

By: Bijan Eftekari, Economist and Korosh Erfani, Political analyst

The Iranian nuclear issue is becoming more complex every day and reaching a very dangerous point. After years of tensions around this case and after absence of negotiations for 15 months, the International community, essentially the Western countries including the USA and the European Union, imposed tough sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran. The increased pressure on the Iranian government brought them back to the negotiating table. In April 2012 Iran and the 5+1 group resumed their negotiation in Istanbul. Those talks, without any tangible results, led to a new meeting on May 23 and 24 in Baghdad. Two days of tense negotiations did not bear any fruit whatsoever! Both sides agreed on a third round of negotiations in June. Now the remaining question is: does the Iranian regime want to solve the nuclear issue? It seems we need a new formulation with a small but important change: Does the regime in Tehran have the ability and the capacity to resolve the nuclear issue?

Nothing other than this change would open a perspective for a better understanding of the situation.

While an observer might base their doubt on the probability that the Iranian regime might not really have tried anything beyond “civil nuclear activity”, one could also envision that it was expressly not looking for anything less than “nuclear weapon capability”. Supposedly, if the former were true, the Iranian regime would finally surrender and accept the proposals of the 5+1 group. But what if the Mullahs have been really trying to get a nuclear bomb?

In this latter case, would it be logical to expect the regime to yield?

We suggest a new hypothesis: Let’s imagine that the Iranian regime has been effectively trying to get the nuclear bomb and this enterprise has left a lot of traces here and there (like in Fordo and Parchin nuclear sites). We should not forget that last November an IAEA report claimed Iran had “carried out activities relevant to the development of a nuclear device”. [1] Now, by signing the NPO’s amendment and accepting the unannounced visits to its sites by IAEA, it will become obvious to the whole world by the finding that the nature of Iranian’s nuclear activity has always been militaristic. The 5+1 group is asking for IAEA’s unconditional and unannounced inspections of all Iranian nuclear facilities including Parchin and Fordo sites! IAEA’s objective in carrying out these inspections appears to be proving the IRI’s military intention in their nuclear activities! If this objective is achieved, the International community will probably not hesitate to legitimize and legalize any military action against Iran.

Do you think Iran would let this happen? The answer is absolutely NOT! The Iranian Regime and the IRG (Islamic Republic Guardians) that is in charge of the nuclear program will not let IAEA’s representatives have access to these suspicious sites. That is a fact!

What to do then?

The only, and we repeat, the only way out for the IRI to avoid such a horrible scenario is to kill time and to pursue its objective at any cost to the Iranian economy and the whole country in order to postpone the above probable catastrophic scenario. Some might ask: but everybody knows that such a confusing and unstable situation could not last forever, nor the Iranian regime. Our answer is: yes, this is true.  That’s why it would and should be a complementary piece to this scenario. While the time-killing diplomacy is adroitly applied by the Iranian negotiation team, the centrifuges are operating in Iran under the supervision of the Revolutionary Guards (IRG). They hope that with a combination of round the clock operation of centrifuges and buying more and more time through endless negotiations, they can eventually get the bomb and surprise the whole world.

Does this analysis lead up to the conclusion to attack Iran as soon as possible? Absolutely not. We are simply trying to make it clear how the Iranian regime is toying with the whole world to reach its ultimate purpose which is developing nuclear weapons. Do we suggest any solution? Yes, cutting all ties with the Regime so that the Iranian people themselves could deal with the Regime on a level playing field. The war is the worst option and we strongly condemn it. Not only because it will result in a devastating human cost and environmental destruction, but because it will hurt the process of  in Iran and all sides (including the Europeans and the American people) will lose in the final analysis. Iran, with a large middle class and an educated young majority, is the most democratic-minded population in the region. We think that Iran’s bankrupt and broken state economy will very soon bring millions of people to the street. The Iranian people can effectively determine their own fate if there is no more support for this unpopular and illegitimate regime.

 

28 May 2012

---