How the International community can treat the Iranian regime’s case
June 26, 2010
The reform in any political structure requires two essentials: determination and a favorable context. We should see if there are some elements that can assure us the existence of these two fundamental and inseparable necessities inside of the Iranian regime.
First, the determination; one fraction of the Islamic Republic thought, 13 years ago, that the regime could improve itself through the State-leading reforms. This gave birth to the reformist faction with the election of Mohammad Khatami on June 1997. Nevertheless, after 8 years of efforts, not only nothing had been obtained, as result, but also and paradoxically it brought the hardest line of the regime to the power. This hard-line had a very precise agenda: putting aside all the non-fundamentalist groups of the regime (moderates and reformists), social and political repression in society and getting the nuclear capacity to make an atomic bomb.
This meant the evacuation any will of reform inside of the political structure.
As to the second element, a favorable context, we saw the invasion of all the economic and political institutions by the ideological military force of the regime, the famous Revolutionary Guard. They control, at the moment, more than 50% of the whole economy and have the last word on almost every national issue, even though officially the supreme guide, Ali Khamenehi, is their chief commander. They “purified” the structure from a great part of its rational or specialist managerial body and gave almost all the high civilian positions to their loyal officers.
The Iranian regime is in a kind of stalemate from which it cannot get away without paying a very high cost, perhaps too expensive; since this cost can be its existence. But the voices are mounting here and there asking for a military attack to Iran, in order to take out this government. Melik Kaylan, writes in Forbes, how such an agenda can have many advantages for the world and for the region. He says: “an Iranian nuclear detonation in the Straits of Hormuz would cause exponentially greater damage there, and chaos to the world’s oil tanker lanes, than the conventional capability the regime now wields. The economic fallout would last for years. If you were the president, what would you do?” He counts in this article all the benefits the world, including the Iranian people –who “need to wade through mountains of rubble to rebuild and count the cost in blood and wealth for some time, as the Iraqis have” – will draw from such a regime change by military action.
This discourse reminds those who said the same thing about Afghanistan and Iraq, leaving the fate of these two nations in the hands of a hypothetical happiness that the Afghan and Iraqi people were supposed to gain and that is at this time far from reality after so many years of war and high costs.
Let’s remind that what made these dreams turning in nightmares for both cases was the disregard of the sociological facts of these two countries that were not at all ready to move into a democracy as a result of the effectiveness of the US Army’s infantry and artillery. Will the Iranian case represent a different case? Nothing is less certain, however, we know that when the spontaneous historical evolution of a society are completely ignored or forgotten there would not be any chance to build a lasting structure to promise the happiness of a people.
On the other hand, some may say that we cannot be unresponsive to how an outlaw regime, like the current Iranian regime, behaves inside and outside of the country. And this is absolutely true. Except, there is a ‘but’. If we want to get rid of the Iranian government why should we choose the worse option – military attack with its uncertain and most probably disastrous consequences – and not the best one? The latter can be a broad and practical support to a genuine social movement that showed, during the last year, that it is truly capable to cause the downfall of a regime that has lost its legitimacy in the society.
At this time, the Iranian regime stays alive only because of its repressive force, acting with a maximum of brutality. If we could help to release this capacity and energy within the movement, the Iranian people will wipe out the regime rapidly with much less cost than any other option. Why the Western countries should try an approach that is in total doubt and full of risks, instead of endeavoring for a simple and good solution: the targeted sanctions that can slash the financial sources of the regime and cut the flow of the money by which the rulers of Teheran feed their oppressive forces. Also one can help the voiceless people to speak out thanks to the new technology. The satellite connection and Internet can be a great help, as we have seen for a year, to bring the Iranian peoples’ claim for freedom to the worldwide stage. #
Khod Rahagaran
Cultural and Political Organization
http://khodrahagaran.org/En-index.html